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ImpacTeen Research Papers New Evidence on
Youth Smoking Behavior Based on Experimental Price Increases The high prevalence
of smoking among American teenagers remains an important public policy
challenge into the 21st century. This study applies a unique approach
to analyzing the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking cessation
by evaluating reactions among high school students to several alternative
hypothetical price increases. It concludes that many young smokers believe
that they would quit smoking or decrease their smoking intensity in response
to a cigarette price increase. The estimated price elasticity of cessation
is reported to be between 0.889 and 0.818. In addition, the study predicts
the strength of behavioral responses to price increases of various magnitudes.
The results indicate that youths expect to change their smoking behavior
even when the price change is relatively small. However, the behavioral
change is most dramatic among the group exposed to the largest price increases
suggesting a sustained impact of higher price on cigarette consumption.
Large cigarette tax increases would result in both substantially higher
quitting rates and a considerable drop in smoking intensity. Research
Paper (PDF - 302KB)
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